The fragile peace in Ethiopia has collapsed, with major clashes erupting between the national army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The violence, which has already spilled into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, marks a disastrous return to conflict following the breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement.
The TPLF, a group with a long history of militancy, is now attempting to regain its lost influence by forming an 'Alliance for Survival' with other armed movements, including the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army.
While these groups have historically been at odds, they are now united by a singular, destabilizing goal: the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The federal government has responded to the aggression by deploying drone strikes and military operations, asserting that it is acting to defend federal territory and sovereignty against rebel incursions. Addis Ababa points to the TPLF’s seizure of local airports as the catalyst for the latest escalation.
Tensions remain high over unresolved issues, including the status of western Tigray and the TPLF’s failure to fully disarm. As the TPLF reportedly resorts to the forced recruitment of young men, the international community—including the African Union and the UN—is scrambling to call for a cessation of hostilities.
However, with trust between the parties at an all-time low and the TPLF actively working to build a coalition of anti-government forces, the risk of a wider, more devastating regional conflict continues to grow.
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